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Key Trends that Will Shape Tech Policy in 2026

From AI federalism and autonomous cyber operations to intensifying U.S.-China competition, we asked leading experts to identify key trends in the year ahead.
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The Era of AI-Orchestrated Hacking Has Begun: Here’s How the United States Should Respond

Policymakers and industry must ensure that organizations have access to fit-for-purpose cyber defenses and take steps to manage the proliferation of AI capabilities.
U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) sit across from each other at a long table, each flanked on the right and left side of the image, respectively, by other officials, with three flags each of the United States and China, alternating along the back wall at the far end of the table.

Trump’s Chip Strategy Needs Recalibration

Facing the challenge from China, U.S. technological leadership in the century ahead requires a focused and disciplined strategy coordinated with allies.
Conceptual and abstract digital generated image of multiple AI chat icons hovering over a digital surface with shallow depth of field in white and gray tones

AI Model Outputs Demand the Attention of Export Control Agencies

The conversation about AI and national security must expand beyond semiconductors and model weights to encompass the outputs those technologies enable.
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As Solar Geoengineering Enters its Startup Phase, Governments Must Address Emerging Security Risks

Without regulation, the dangers of solar radiation modification will become magnified and the security risks more unchecked.
Delegates pose for photos at the signing ceremony of the United Nations Convention against Cybercrime

The Promise and Peril of the U.N. Convention Against Cybercrime

It is up to democracies to ensure that repressive regimes do not abuse the new U.N. Cybercrime Convention to undermine fundamental freedoms.
A billboard shows a caricature of Russian President Vladimir Putin pulling the ropes of then-fugitive oligarchs Ilan Shor (R) and Vladimir Plahotniuc (L), as if they are puppets, above words reading "They ask for your vote." The billboard was displayed in Ungheni city on September 24, 2025. (Photo by DANIEL MIHAILESCU/AFP via Getty Images)

How Tech Platforms Allowed Russia Into Moldova: Lessons for the EU and Others

What played out across social media throughout Moldova's recent election exposed how easily disinformation fills the gaps between state regulation and platform indifference. 
Just Security

Will Victims of Cyber Attacks Soon Get Their Day in Court? Options for Accountability for Cyber Attacks

More cyber litigation will appear on the docket as pathways to legal accountability for unlawful State-sponsored cyber operations strengthen.
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Governing AI Agents Globally: The Role of International Law, Norms and Accountability Mechanisms

Stakeholders must creatively leverage existing legal and normative tools to ensure AI agents serve humanity — not destabilize it.
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Embedded Human Judgment in the Age of Autonomous Weapons

A new framework for autonomous weapons shows that real control depends on embedded human judgment across design, command, and operation.
(L-R) U.S. President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer

Trading Sovereignty for Scale? The Costs of the U.S.–U.K. Tech Prosperity Deal

In its Tech Prosperity Deal with the US, the United Kingdom may be trading its sovereignty for dependence on American tech firms.
Visualization of the U.S.-China tech competition

Export Controls and U.S. Trade Policy: Making Sense of the New Terrain

The Trump administration's use of export controls as leverage in trade diplomacy creates risks for key U.S. national security interests.
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