The Trump administration has rightly cast securing U.S. quantum leadership as a national security imperative. By harnessing the quirks of subatomic physics, quantum technologies promise vast economic gains in sectors spanning pharmaceuticals, transportation, and communications. They also carry profound security stakes, enabling new battlefield advantages and cyber threats that could rebalance global power. But with tightening federal budgets, advancing America’s quantum ambitions will require smart and creative bets with outsized returns, in the words of Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios.
Quantum sensing—the most mature quantum technology today—offers just such an opportunity. Targeted federal initiatives could accelerate the deployment of quantum sensors in the next three years. This would unlock substantial defense, security, and economic benefits, while simultaneously strengthening U.S. domestic supply chains and global quantum leadership. Yet timely and decisive action is essential. As Kratsios warned, “There is nothing predestined about technological progress.”
Why Quantum Sensing Matters
Quantum sensors are poised to deliver essential capabilities for defense, critical infrastructure, and commercial sectors, with a market projected to approach $1 billion by 2028. Their most urgent national security application is providing reliable positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT)—the ability to determine locations, plan trajectories, and synchronize activities—when GPS is compromised or unavailable. Adversaries are already jamming and spoofing the weak satellite signals the world relies on, disrupting missions in conflict zones like Ukraine, affecting thousands of commercial flights each day, and even targeting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s aircraft last weekend. Large attacks could trigger systemic defense and critical infrastructure failures costing the United States over $1 billion per day.
By measuring time, acceleration, rotation, and local magnetic and gravity fields with atomic-level precision, quantum sensors provide unprecedented long-term accuracy in positioning and timing without relying on vulnerable external signals. Moreover, unlike other GPS alternatives that use radar, lidar, and cameras, quantum sensors do not emit signals and operate reliably in any weather and environment. These features enable stealthy precision guidance for munitions, submarines, drones, and spacecraft, as well as the stable synchronization of telecom networks, power grids, and financial transactions.
Quantum sensors’ extraordinary precision also could significantly enhance the detection of enemy assets, from hidden tunnels, nuclear facilities, and submarines, to missile threats targeted by the Trump administration’s proposed “Golden Dome” architecture. They also promise wide-ranging civilian applications, from improving mineral exploration and gas leak detection, to boosting microchip security and biomedical diagnostics, to even probing the mysteries of dark matter.
America’s Quantum Sensing Advantage is at Risk
U.S. institutions have long produced world-leading quantum sensing research, and over twenty domestic firms, from startups to defense primes, are already delivering sensor prototypes and early products. Many of these technological achievements have been accelerated by forward-looking programs at DARPA and Defense Innovation Unit-led demonstrations on military platforms across land, sea, air, and most recently, even in space.
The United States’ lead, however, is increasingly fragile: underinvestment, inconsistent demand, and a brittle supply chain are threatening to trap quantum sensing prototypes in the “Valley of Death.” For starters, although U.S. quantum firms have attracted more venture capital than firms in any other country, only 9 percent has gone to sensing. The vast majority flows to quantum computing, a more nascent technology that dominates the headlines, but whose commercial and military utility remains underdefined and could be a decade or more away.
This imbalance in private investments underscores the need for government leadership: quantum sensors are poised to deliver critical national security capabilities—including resilient timing and navigation—that markets may undervalue but the country cannot afford to ignore. Yet gaps in government strategy and execution remain a serious obstacle. The Department of Defense (DoD)’s quantum programs lack coordination across the armed services, limiting their efficiency and impact. Meanwhile, the Department’s PNT Oversight Council has funneled billions into GPS upgrades plagued by delays and cost overruns, without commensurate action to accelerate platform adoption of complementary next-generation solutions such as quantum sensors.
Congress is compounding the problem. This year’s defense spending bills are set to cut funds for quantum sensing and alternative PNT programs by roughly 40 percent despite addressing one of the warfighter’s most pressing operational gaps. Moreover, the 2018 National Quantum Initiative Act lapsed in 2023 and still awaits renewal, jeopardizing key R&D programs at the Department of Energy, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the National Science Foundation.
Weak demand across both private and public sectors has left sensor developers with a thin supplier base for critical quantum technology inputs such as lasers, isotopes, and photonic materials. Reliance on foreign suppliers—including from China and Russia—exacerbates this vulnerability, leaving U.S. progress hostage to external chokepoints that could severely hinder progress across all quantum technologies.
Meanwhile, Beijing is surging ahead. China already leads in quantum communications and is closing the gap in quantum computing and sensing, with its research output recently surpassing the United States’ in volume and impact. Crucially, China excels at turning lab breakthroughs into deployed capabilities, backed by centralized state funding that circumvents market barriers and fuels the country’s manufacturing. Unless Washington moves quickly, Beijing will seize early defense and economic advantages—and set the rules of the global quantum game.
How U.S. Policymakers Can Sharpen America’s Quantum Edge
Targeted action on three fronts offers Washington a smart and creative path to field quantum sensors in just a few years while strengthening national security, catalyzing commercial applications, and reinforcing America’s global quantum leadership.
First, send a strong demand signal. A clear federal commitment to quantum sensing will catalyze private investment and deployment. The Defense Department’s PNT Oversight Council and critical infrastructure agencies should set firm requirements for integrating GPS alternatives, and a new Joint Quantum Office at the Pentagon could align strategic quantum technology investments and procurement across the armed services.
Grand challenge competitions that pool private investments with resources from the Departments of Homeland Security, Interior, Transportation, Energy, and from the National Institutes of Health could accelerate quantum sensing demonstrations in additional high-impact sectors, from underground tunnel and mineral exploration to commercial navigation and biomedical diagnostics. Coupled with end-user incentives such as tax credits, these initiatives could help ignite a sustainable market for quantum sensing that extends well beyond defense.
Second, fortify supply chains and manufacturing. Strengthening the U.S. quantum industrial base will support today’s sensing needs and advance emerging fields like quantum computing and networking. The Defense and Commerce Departments should work with industry to monitor key suppliers and steer targeted federal investments to spur domestic production at scale—an effort a recent Defense budget request pegged at an initial $30 million. Calibrating tariffs and export controls can also prevent near-term chokepoints, allowing American firms to source specialized parts from trusted allies while they scale domestic production.
Third, invest in research and talent to sustain innovation. Reauthorizing the National Quantum Initiative Act would enable science agencies to expand quantum engineering R&D, advancing materials and fabrication methods to boost sensor performance while reducing size and power demands. Equally important is cultivating a skilled workforce, from technicians to PhDs, through quantum curricula and academia-industry partnerships aligned with national priorities.
By prioritizing quantum sensors—today’s most mature quantum technology—the Trump administration and Congress can shore up GPS vulnerabilities, catalyze battlefield and commercial breakthroughs, and supercharge the broader quantum ecosystem, all within a few years. With clear demand signals and strategic investments, Washington will not merely react to emerging threats—it will secure America’s lead in the coming quantum era.
