On Monday, special counsel Robert Mueller indicted former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his associate Rick Gates, Jr. (word-searchable full text). The indictment involves 12 charges, including conspiracy against the United States, money laundering, being an unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false foreign registration statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts.
Separately, former Trump foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos’ guilty plea was unsealed, showing that he pleaded guilty to one count of lying to federal FBI investigators regarding March and April 2016 meetings with a Kremlin-connected Russian professor who claimed to have “dirt” on Hillary Clinton (word-searchable full text).
Many legal analysts took to Twitter to share their first thoughts on the situation.
Just Security Editorial Board member Renato Mariotti broke down the legal landscape of the charges against Manafort and Gates:
THREAD: My very preliminary / initial thoughts on the indictment of Paul Manafort and Richard Gates.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
1/ The indictment of Manafort and Gates was just unsealed. You can view it here: https://t.co/18D13HQRQD
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
2/ An indictment is a formal charge that has been approved on by a grand jury, which are a group ordinary citizens who hear evidence..
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
3/ In the United States, you have a constitutional right to be charged by indictment if you are being charged with a felony.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
4/ The indictment charges Paul Manafort and Richard Gates with multiple felonies. A felony is a crime punishable by over a year in prison.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
5/ The indictment charges the men with a number of different crimes. I’m going to walk through them in this thread.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
6/ Indictments list the allegations that the government is making and the specific laws that have been violated.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
7/ This indictment is something called a “speaking indictment” — instead of just saying the charges, it lists specific factual allegations.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
8/ Certain crimes (like conspiracy) require the government to explain exactly what the defendants did and what the conspiracy was about.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
9/ Prosecutors gain a couple of advantages from charging crimes like conspiracy. First, they get to give the jury a road map of the case.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
10/ The jury gets to bring the indictment back into the jury room when they deliberate after a trial.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
11/ Conspiracy charges also let prosecutors bring in a broader range of activity into a single charge.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
12/ Typically crimes involve a specific action or occur at a specific time. A conspiracy is an agreement to break the law and it is ongoing.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
13/ So the first charge in this indictment is a conspiracy under 18 U.S.C. 371. That is a general federal conspiracy statute.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
14/ If two people agree to commit a federal law and take a concrete step towards doing so (called an overt act), they’ve violated 371.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
15/ Here, Manafort and Gates are charged with agreeing to defeat the lawful functions of the United States.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
16/ This is a common charge in tax cases–I charged this statute myself in a tax case. It means they worked together to undermine the IRS.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
17/ For instance, when you go out of your way to hide money and affirmatively make it hard for the IRS to enforce the law against you.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
18/ You can read more about the basis of the conspiracy charge by reading the parts of the indictment references in paragraphs 38 and 39.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
19/ The second crime is a conspiracy (agreement) to launder money. That’s when you move money in order to promote *another* crime.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
20/ I’ve told you before that money laundering is a challenge to prove because you need to show that other crime happened. Mueller did that.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
21/ The other crime (it’s called “specified unlawful activity”) is a failure to register as a foreign agent. More on that later.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
22/ The next crime is only against Manafort for failure to file a statement with the Treasury Department disclosing foreign bank accounts.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
23/ As we’ve discussed often, prosecutors like narrow charges like this because they’re easy to prove. Either you disclosed or not, period.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
24/ The next crime charged is against only Gates for essentially the same thing. Failing to disclose foreign bank accounts.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
25/ The next count is for failing to register as a foreign agent. The law requires that anyone working in the U.S. as an agent of a foreign
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
26/ government must register with the Attorney General. This is another narrow crime that can be very straightforward to prove.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
27/ (Registration is important so our government can monitor what foreign governments are doing within the United States.)
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
28/ The next crime (Count 11, p. 27) is one of the most important and revealing. This charges false and misleading registration statements.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
29/ I don’t have time to list the statements here, but Mueller is affirmatively alleging that he can prove beyond a reasonable doubt that
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
30/ each one of those statements is false, which says something about the work that Manafort and Gates were doing and allegedly lied about.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
31/ The next crime is just a different way of charging the same false statements, which are a violation of both statutes.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
32/ Prosecutors sometimes charge the same crime multiple ways because what they have to prove under each statute is slightly different.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
33/ The last part of the indictment is something called the “Forfeiture Allegation.” If property is acquired from unlawful activity, or
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
34/ if it is used in unlawful activity, it can be “forfeited” (taken) by the federal government. That forfeiture has to be alleged too.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
35/ Here the government lists various property that they will try to forfeit as well as “substitute property” that they can take if the
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
36/ listed property is no longer available because it was sold or transferred.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
37/ I have many, many more thoughts on this indictment but this is a starting point. I will have more threads today and will be on TV a lot.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
38/ I read your comments and questions, even if I can’t respond to all of them, and I’ll try to answer them later today. /end
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
Likewise, Just Security Editorial Board member Alex Whiting took a look at the potential strategic and future implications of the Manafort-Gates charges:
1/ Initial thoughts on what Manafort/Gates charges mean. It is hard to know what they mean for direction and future of Mueller investigation
— Alex Whiting (@alexgwhiting) October 30, 2017
2/ They are corruption and financial crimes unrelated to possible Russian collusion in the election.
— Alex Whiting (@alexgwhiting) October 30, 2017
3/ So it is difficult to find clues about where the broader investigation is headed. This case may have just fallen in lap and so had to do.
— Alex Whiting (@alexgwhiting) October 30, 2017
4/ Or there may be strategic considerations as well. Will Manafort/Gates be persuaded to flip? The charges suggest they have refused so far.
— Alex Whiting (@alexgwhiting) October 30, 2017
5/ Certainly indictments will get the attention of other potential witnesses. That is not why Mueller brought case, but could affect timing.
— Alex Whiting (@alexgwhiting) October 30, 2017
6/ But at the end of the day, we do not know much more than we did yesterday about where the investigation might go.
— Alex Whiting (@alexgwhiting) October 30, 2017
7/ Complex investigations such as this one need time to unfold and develop, and we are just at the beginning. End.
— Alex Whiting (@alexgwhiting) October 30, 2017
As the news emerged, Renato also gave his take on Trump advisor George Padadopoulos decision to plead guilty to one count of lying to the FBI:
THREAD: What does news that George Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI mean? (Hint: He’s flipping.)
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
1/ Today Trump Advisor George Padadopoulos pleaded guilty to one count of lying to the FBI. The charge is here: https://t.co/g0ZUeHtHar
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
2/ Unlike the charges against Manafort and Gates, Padadopoulos is not charged via indictment. He has agreed to waive that right.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
3/ That is something that defendants do when they are trying to be cooperative with the prosecutor. It saves the grand jury’s time.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
4/ Also it gives the defense some input into what is in the charging document (called an “information”) because they are agreeing to it.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
5/ In and of itself, the fact that he agreed to an information doesn’t necessarily mean that he has “flipped.”
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
6/ “Flipping” means that someone has agreed to completely and truthfully cooperate with the government, including testify against others.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
7/ In addition to agreeing to an information, there are two other signs that strongly suggest to me that Padadopoulos has “flipped.”
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
8/ First, he is pleading guilty. If Papadopoulos is not receiving any benefit from Mueller, there is little to be gained from doing that.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
9/ He could wait to receive the evidence that Mueller plans to use (something called “discovery”) and see what Mueller has on him.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
10/ In addition, Papadopoulos is charged with only a single, narrow crime. That is also strongly suggestive of cooperation.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
11/ Attorneys representing cooperators typically try to bargain with prosecutors over what crime they are charged with.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
12/ Typically federal prosecutors require that defendants plead to a single felony crime that has a sufficient maximum criminal penalty
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
13/ to cover all of the criminal conduct they committed, because judges consider all of a defendant’s activity when determining a sentence.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
14/ Lying to the FBI is a fairly narrow crime, but it carries a five-year maximum sentence, which is sufficient to cover his liability.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
15/ The fact that this charge was released now, along with Manafort and Gates, suggests to me that he will cooperate against one of them.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
16/ Otherwise, Mueller could have waited to charge Padadopoulos. Obviously, the fact that he is admitting that he lied to the FBI will be
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
17/ by the defense to suggest that he is lying when he testifies against Manafort and/or Gates.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
18/ That’s very typical for cooperators. Usually cooperators are criminals themselves, and carry with them some amount of baggage.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
19/ That’s why, as I’ve said before, a witness like Comey is so much better. Unlike a cooperator, he’s a career law enforcement officer.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
20/ Nonetheless, Papadopoulos will be very important to Mueller because he can provide an inside look at the Trump campaign.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
21/ Having an insider explain to the jury what happened is really important because it tells a story in a way documents don’t tell alone.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
22/ There is a lot more here to digest and discuss, including the detailed allegations. I’ll post more threads (and discuss more on TV).
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
23/ I’ll do my best to read your questions in this thread in between. /end
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
Renato added:
Just to be clear, today’s indictment doesn’t mean that Mueller won’t add more charges later. He can do that—it’s called “superseding.” https://t.co/tfCLj3g1qr
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
Wow. Read this section of the Papadopoulos charge, including the footnote. Someone “low level” has to visit Russia as to not send a signal. pic.twitter.com/Qz2c1zNQ6Y
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
I guess someone didn’t read the charges against Padadopoulos. There are some emails discussed in that document that will be hard to explain. https://t.co/12a3mrPGVC
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
And authored an addendum addressing his conclusion that Papadopoulos flipped:
1/ In case anyone doubted my conclusion that Papadopoulos flipped (thread linked below) check out this paragraph in his charging document: pic.twitter.com/qmRX7MgNfT
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
2/ He was arrested in July and has been helping them ever since. But he hasn’t been charged until now. That means he was “unarrested.”
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
3/ He wasn’t charged until October 5th. Look at the date stamp on his charging document, in the header: https://t.co/g0ZUeHtHar
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
4/ The fact Mueller kept that a secret until now shows you that he’s running a tight ship. Talk that leaks are from him aren’t supported.
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
5/ Original Papadopoulos thread is here: https://t.co/miVecauzO1
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017
6/ More to come after my @HLNTV appearance. /end
— Renato Mariotti (@renato_mariotti) October 30, 2017