Early Edition: October 15, 2026

Sign up to receive the Early Edition in your inbox here.

A curated weekday guide to major news and developments over the last 24 hours. Here’s today’s news:

IRAN WAR

President Trump at a rally in Montana yesterday reiterated that he wasn’t sure who U.S. officials were negotiating with in efforts to end the Iran war. Trump said Iran doesn’t have a navy, airforce, or army left, and that he “should have probably left their leaders because I don’t know who the hell we’re negotiating with.” Abigail Walker reports for The Hill.

The U.S. military has developed new strike plans that include potentially using the “mother of all bombs” to target Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites should Trump give the order to resume combat operations, U.S. officials told CNN. The use of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb, the largest non-nuclear U.S. bomb, for the first time would mark a significant escalation in the war. Zachary Cohen, Haley Britzky, and Kevin Liptak report.

IRAN WAR- OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore and U.N. International Maritime Organization yesterday reported two incidents of ships sinking near the Strait of Hormuz. U.N. IMO reported on the sinking of an Antigua and Barbuda-flagged ship that sank close to the strait weeks after being struck by a projectile on Sep. 23. One crew member was killed and the rest of the crew was evacuated straight after the strike. Separately, MPA reported on a Singapore-flagged container vessel that sank while sailing through the strait, and confirmed all 21 crew members were safely evacuated. Jonathan Saul and Renee Maltezou report for Reuters.

LEBANON

U.N. Undersecretary-General for Peace Operations Jean Pierre Lacroix yesterday told AP News that Lebanese authorities “were unanimous in telling us they want to keep a U.N. presence” in Lebanon. The U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon monitors and defuses tensions between Israeli and Lebanese troops on the ground, and is due to end its mission soon despite a push by Lebanese officials for a last-minute extension of UNIFIL’s mandate. Abby Sewell reports.

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

A U.S. federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked the Trump administration from penalizing two U.S.-based organizations, Democracy for the Arab World (DAWN) and Taxpayer Alliance Againat Genocide, who support the International Criminal Court’s investigations into alleged war crimes in Gaza. The judge ruled that Trump’s executive order placing sanctions on the ICC violated the companies’ right to free speech under the First Amendment. Francesca Regalado reports for the New York Times.

ISRAEL

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday said he was not in favor of a preemptive strike against Iran before Israel’s elections on Oct. 27 but also warned Iran and its proxies against striking Israel. Netanyahu said that strikes would not be “convenient for us, it’s no good.” Maayan Lubell and Lina Obeid report for Reuters.

Human rights groups Physicians for Human Rights Israel and the Public Committee Against Torture in Israel have reported a surge of mostly Palestinian inmates being shot by guards with rubber bullets at close range, with some suffering severe injuries, according to PHRI files reviewed by AP News. Of the 22 cases of inmates being shot by rubber bullets, 21 were Palestinian, and nearly all the shootings have occurred since last fall. The groups sent a letter to the Israel Prison Service in August urging it to end behavior they called “widespread” and “unlawful.” Sam Mednick reports.

A report by Canadian watchdog group Citizen Lab and another by U.S. advertising security firm Confiant today exposed that Israeli digital advertising agency Discover-Tech spied on internet users through a network of online ads it used to track targets and help hack their devices. Discover-Tech’s services gave Israeli surveillance firms access to advertising platforms run by Google and other search engines. Raphael Satter reports for Reuters.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times in an interview published today that Ukraine will resume strikes on Russia’s oil refineries, and expressed anger over a “dangerous” withdrawal of U.S. intelligence and simultaneous weakening of Starlink satellite internet service at a time of intense Russian attacks. Zelenskyy said Ukraine paused energy strikes for three days to comply with U.S. wishes while Russia continued to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure and kill civilians. Zelenskyy also said Trump had an instinctive affinity for autocrats and the super wealthy. Alec Russell and Ben Hall report.

Russia’s Ryazan region Gov. Pavel Malkov today said a Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire to break out at an oil refinery. The attack was the first by Ukraine since Trump announced an energy ceasefire last Sunday which neither side confirmed. Reuters reports.

Ukraine’s Kirovohrad region Gov. Andriy Raikovych today said the central region was hit by the largest Russian attack on its territory during the war overnight, killing three people and wounding another six. Kirovohrad said the “enemy deliberately hit critical infrastructure, transport enterprises, logistics facilities, and residential homes.” Max Hunder reports for Reuters.

Ukraine’s military today said it had damaged six Russian military aircraft in an overnight strike on the Borisglebsk airfield in Russia’s Voronezh region. Lina Golovnya and Max Hunder report for Reuters.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk yesterday suggested that the U.S. government may be behind restrictions on the speed at which some of Ukraine’s weapons can travel and stay connected to SpaceX’s Starlink internet network. Musk said that Starshield, the military-grade sister service to Starlink, is controlled by the U.S. government, and “any limits on speed or usage are decided” by the U.S. military and Trump. Tiffany Wertheimer reports for BBC News.

Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov yesterday said SpaceX was working to restore satellite speeds in Ukraine and thanked Musk for his attention to the issue. Fedorov said he hoped the company would next “remove Starshield’s speed limit entirely” and that the move is “now critical for Ukraine’s defense.” Sarah Davis reports for The Hill.

Russia has nearly finished building a new base for launching jet-powered drones in just six weeks, according to defense experts and analysis of satellite imagery by Reuters. Tom Balmforth and Edward Carron report.

Russia’s FSB security service today said it had detained a Swedish man it suspects of planning attacks and sabotage on behalf of Ukraine after entering Russia on the pretext of joining the Russian army. The Swedish Foreign Ministry said it was aware of reports but was not currently involved in the case. Reuters reports.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz today said frozen Russian assets in Europe should stay under the region’s control, following a report that the United States may seek supervision over some of the assets. Merz said it is Europe’s “business and we are deciding over it.” Ludwig Burger, Alexander Ratz, and Mrinmay Dey report for Reuters.

OTHER GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS

Romanian officials today said two chemical tankers caught fire overnight inside Romanian territorial waters in the Black Sea after Russian drones strayed into Romanian airspace. Rescuers were searching for seven missing crew today from one of the tankers. Romanian officials stopped short of explicitly linking the fires onboard the ships to the Russian drones. Luiza Ilie reports for Reuters.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and independent watchdog groups yesterday accused Meta and its social media platforms of giving his presidential rival Flávio Bolsonaro favorable treatment. The groups monitoring social media said search results omit progressive activists, videos critical of Bolsonaro are taken down without explanation, and posts praising Lula reach fewer people. Lula’s campaign filed a complaint with Brazil’s electoral court on Saturday demanding fair treatment online. Ana Ionova reports for the New York Times.

The New Yalu River Bridge between China and North Korea opened today. Chinese Premier Li Qiang said the crossing would become a new landmark symbolizing the two nations’ traditional friendship. AP News reports.

CLIMATE DEVELOPMENTS

A joint study by World Weather Attribution and Climate Central published today said that climate change and El Niño combined to create last month’s Hurricane Polo, which was the longest lasting Category 5 storm ever in the Pacific. Climate change made the conditions that fueled the hurricane 23 times more likely, while El Niño made it 14 times more likely. Seth Borenstein reports for AP News.

A study by the Danish Meteorological Institute published yesterday said an Atlantic Ocean current system weakened by global warming could recover over time if the climate cools. The study found no sign there was an irreversible tipping point for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as suggested by previous studies, though the effects of the changes could last for centuries. Agnieszka Olenska and Louise Rasmussen report for Reuters.

U.S. AI DEVELOPMENTS

Saudi national and former OpenAI employee Abdulrahman Alfozan, who was this week charged with planting a secret recording device in an OpenAI executive conference room, last month appeared on an Arabic podcast interview and said he and other Saudi tech professionals in Silicon Valley had formed a group that advised Saudi organizations. The Saudi organizations included the kingdom’s insurance agency and RAED Ventures, a venture capital firm which names Alfozan as a venture partner on its website. Emmy Martin reports for the New York Times.

Eight states yesterday sued OpenAI, alleging the company has been misleading users about the safety of ChatGPT. The suit alleges the company’s failure to provide safeguards has encouraged suicide, self-harm, and violence among its users, including teenagers. Casey He and Elleiana Green report for POLITICO.

U.S. FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores are due in court today to respond to a new indictment accusing them of conspiring to torture political opponents. The additional charges were brought last Thursday and significantly expanded the criminal case against the pair. Their lawyers said they deny the torture charges. Luc Cohen reports for Reuters.

U.S. IMMIGRATION DEVELOPMENTS.

A Government Accountability Office report publicly released yesterday said federal immigration officials need to ensure body cameras worn by officers are uniformly activated when needed. ICE rejected the recommendation and said that using cameras that automatically activate when an officer pulls their weapon or activates a car siren could risk privacy concerns. Rebecca Santana reports for AP News.

Federal authorities investigating House Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) seized her phone and have issued more than a dozen grand jury subpoenas, including to some of her relatives, a source told AP News. The subpoenas were issued for a grand jury collecting evidence in Minnesota as federal authorities probe potential fraud in Omar’s immigration paperwork. Alanna Durkin Richer reports.

A federal magistrate judge ultimately limited how the DOJ could access Omar’s documents in their raid on her house on Monday because of her role as a member of Congress, sources told CNN. Omar has been under criminal investigations for years, including before Trump’s new term, but Trump’s administration has pushed further with the belief she has repeated false statements when filing government documents such as passports. That is what led to the search on Monday, according to the sources. Katelyn Polantz, Evan Perez, and Jake Tapper report.

The lawyers of Oscar Belgal, the man who was shot by ICE agents in New York, yesterday said the agent who shot him never identified himself before he ran up to the car, smashed one of its windows, then fired several shots into the vehicle. The account by the lawyers sharply contrasted the account of events outlined by Department of Homeland Security officials, who said officers opened fire only after Belgal smashed his car into two government vehicles and “accelerated toward other officers.” Philip Marcelo reports for AP News.

California prosecutors on Tuesday filed felony assault charges against ICE agent David Gonzalez III who last Friday was found sleeping outside a home in Fresno at 3am and was shot by the homeowner during a scuffle. Gonzalez is charged with assault likely to produce great bodily injury, battery, elder abuse, and vandalism. The police said Gonzalez appeared “intoxicated and agitated” when the 72-year-old homeowner went to wake him, and Gonzalez assaulted the man and his daughter. Orlando Mayorquín reports for the New York Times.

A federal Court of Appeals yesterday ruled against a California law requiring ICE agents to show visible identification. The ruling stated that the federal government showed that the No Vigilantes Act violates the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution which “prohibits States from directly regulating federal operations even when regulating state operations in the same manner.” Ryan Mancini reports for The Hill.

U.S. DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS

The Justice Department yesterday threatened emergency court action unless California officials investigate potential ineligible voters within 48 hours and set aside ballots from anyone whose citizenship they cannot verify, according to two letters sent to state officials from the DOJ seen by Axios. Acting Deputy Attorney General R. Trent McCotter’s letter ended by saying that if California “cannot implement this process by then, given the ongoing federal election the United States will have no choice but to seek emergency relief.” Brittany Gibson and Avery Lotz report.

The FBI yesterday confirmed FBI Director Kash Patel was in Virginia for a law enforcement-related event and denied a report that he had traveled to Russia. MS NOW, citing two unnamed sources, earlier reported Patel had landed in Russia for a two-day meeting. Video footage from an ABC News’ affiliate in Virginia showed Patel at an event in Lynchburg, Virginia. Susan Heavey and Ryan Patrick Jones report for Reuters.

Just over half of major party candidates in the 13 most competitive midterm election states told Reuters they will accept election results regardless of the outcome, while some signaled a degree of uncertainty. David Morgan reports.

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ACTION

Trump at a rally in Arizona yesterday said government sources who reveal information about military plans should be shot. Zolan Kanno-Youngs reports for the New York Times.

The Campaign for Accountability yesterday filed a complaint with the State Bar of California asking for an investigation into White House press secretary Katie Zacharia over her claims that she is a lawyer after reports surfaced that she is not licensed to practice law in any state. The complaint notes that if the reporting is accurate that Zacharia has “repeatedly held herself out to the public as entitled to practice law without a license to do so,” then it’s an act that California law treats as a crime. Mallory Wilson reports for The Hill.

Trump has directed his White House counsel to investigate claims brought forward on Friday by former Trump attorney Alina Habba, who alleged that former Kennedy Center leader Ric Grenell failed to deposit a nearly $6 million donation that her husband Turhan Mildon made to the center a year ago, sources told Axios. Grenell denied the accusations as “absurd” and a “lie.” Marc Caputo reports.

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION LITIGATION

The Supreme Court yesterday sided with the Trump administration and overturned a lower appeals court order to the Federal Communications Commission to finalize its rules outlining who can benefit from low rates for political advertising. The Supreme Court said the lower court’s decision was “inappropriate under the circumstances” and added that federal law “does not obligate the commission to act within a particular time frame.” The emergency order was unsigned and did not give a vote count. Abbie VanSickle reports for the New York Times.

Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington yesterday filed a lawsuit challenging the legality of Jared Kushner’s role in the Trump administration. The suit “seeks to bar Kushner from occupying his government position and exercising government authority in violation of the Appointments Clause.” The Appointments Clause lets the president appoint “principal” officers that the Senate later confirms. Kushner has not been confirmed by the Senate for his government work. Tara Sutter reports for The Hill.

Did you miss this? Stay up-to-date with our Litigation Tracker: Legal Challenges to Trump Administration Actions.

If you enjoy listening, Just Security’s analytic articles are also available in audio form on the justsecurity.org website.

ICYMI: Yesterday on Just Security

De-transition: Northern Ireland and the Ongoing Challenges of Keeping the Peace

By Fionnuala Ní Aoláin KC (Hons)

Ethiopia’s Fragile Peace Has Broken – But This is Not the 2020-2022 Conflict

By Lesley Anne Warner

Filed Under

Send A Letter To The Editor

DON'T MISS A THING. Stay up to date with Just Security curated newsletters: