Ending the dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over water-sharing rights to the Nile and the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the greatest deal President Donald Trump almost made. And it is a deal he may now be uniquely positioned to help seal, building on the momentum of the ceasefire in Gaza and his recent visit to Egypt.
When listing the seven wars he purportedly ended while speaking at the United Nations in September, Trump surprised conflict watchers by claiming to have ended this somewhat esoteric fight — a war that has not yet started. Yet, Trump’s attention to this high-stakes dispute, if well-focused, could still produce results. A deal is basically written, but a dramatic “closer” who can create a narrative to sell to both domestic publics is needed to lock it in.
The core of the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is about water and the power politics of the Nile River. Ethiopia’s Blue Nile contributes 85 percent of the Nile’s water, but historically Egypt has used 90 percent of that flow downstream based on colonial-era treaties. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is projected to double Ethiopia’s electricity capacity, fueling needed development, and is an intense source of national pride for a country dealing with significant internal ethnic and regional divisions. Egypt sees the dam as a direct threat to its water supply, given its reliance on Nile waters, especially with its fast-growing population and potential for extended or intensified droughts or flooding due to climate change. Ethiopia has pledged to work with Egypt and Sudan, which lies in between them, in the event of extreme weather, but neither Egypt nor Sudan trusts Ethiopia’s pledges. Adding to the mistrust, Egypt fears that dam is only the beginning — that Ethiopia may move to construct further dams to extract water for its agricultural and industrial use.
Egypt and Ethiopia are engaged in a dispute that is contributing to wider regional instability. It is impeding efforts to stop the devastating violent civil war in Sudan (already the world’s worst humanitarian crisis by many metrics) and inflaming regional tensions in Somalia to Ethiopia’s east. Last month, Somalia’s president rejected peacekeepers offered by both countries and said he did not want to become a battleground for a proxy war between the two.
Once So Close…and Yet…
The first Trump administration came close to a deal to resolve this conflict in 2019-2020, but the deal was never finished. In a strange series of diplomatic events, after the Trump team secured the outlines of a deal, it then fumbled the ball by cutting U.S. aid to Ethiopia, followed by threats from Trump that Egypt would “blow up” the dam if no agreement was reached.
During the Biden administration, where we both worked on this issue in 2021, consecutive U.S. envoys continued to bring both sides back to the table and finalize an agreement. There was almost a breakthrough at the U.S.-Africa Leaders’ Summit in 2022, but Egypt pulled back – possibly in hopes it could get a binding agreement or a better deal later, especially if Trump returned to office. The conflict moved to the backburner over subsequent years as attention was consumed by the wars in Sudan and Gaza.
In the meantime, the Ethiopians continued undaunted to construct the dam. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was inaugurated last month to great fanfare in Ethiopia. The reservoir-filling process is complete and energy is beginning to flow. Ominously in response, Egypt sent a letter to the U.N. Security Council warning it will not allow Ethiopia to impose unilateral control over shared water resources. In a recent speech to donors, Trump seemed to realize the conflict was not quite solved and commented that the dam remains a “big problem” for Egypt.
On the surface, it may seem like this conflict is far from ripe for a deal. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed believes he has the upper hand right now. He is basking in the glory of the dam’s success and does not want to be seen as caving to Egyptian pressure, especially as he seeks to establish a foothold on the Red Sea, over the likely objections of Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti. A port would be an uphill and potentially dangerous goal for his landlocked country. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, too, faces domestic pressure to project strength as he seeks to hold on to power — he needs to add energy to his struggling economy.
Potential for Good Optics
Yet, Trump is a master of strong man diplomacy and creating optics around a potential deal. He could create a scene where both Abiy and el-Sisi get a win handed to them in gold-embossed palatial rooms with overstuffed couches. He has the trust of el-Sisi, and he can regain the trust of Abiy. The question is whether Trump’s team can and will do the work needed to set him up for success on this issue.
In many ways, a workable agreement is already drafted. The parties were close to accepting the draft text that former U.S. Special Envoy Mike Hammer developed with the parties in the runup to the 2022 Summit. Ideally, the agreement will include provisions for a technical body made up of experts from all three countries and international participation to review and report on the flow and use of water. The United States could further propose options for third-party monitoring and verification mechanisms, including with regard to construction of any more dams, to help assuage Egypt’s concerns.
Ethiopia is skeptical, in part out of concern over Trump’s sympathy for Egypt, but the United States and its partners have leverage. Ethiopia faces a growing crisis in managing unsustainable sovereign debt and desperately needs planned support from international financial institutions. After having pulled back considerable foreign aid to Ethiopia as part of this administration’s dramatic gutting of foreign assistance, the Trump team could dangle new support from the proposed $2.9 billion “American First Opportunity Fund” – a flexible fund in the administration’s fiscal year 2026 budget request to Congress – to get them back on-side. As for the Egyptians, the United States continues to have leverage with its annual $1.3 billion it provides in Foreign Military Financing. Egypt also is desperate for more foreign investment to create jobs, and would welcome associated support.
The United Arab Emirates, with which the Trump team is already working closely on several issues, will be an important partner in reaching any deal and bringing along Abiy. The UAE has significant political and financial leverage with Ethiopia in particular, given billions of dollars in financing provided and a range of cooperation agreements between them. In support of resolving the conflict, the UAE previously hosted several rounds of experts to identify technical solutions to help the countries prepare for drought scenarios. And the UAE could use some positive international news coverage amid continuing reporting of its partisan role in Sudan’s war and the devastation in Yemen.
With the right components in place, Trump’s team could set him up to engage Abiy and el-Sisi and be the closer of a deal. As much as it might pain human rights advocates, given the longstanding and egregious rights violations by both parties over the years, a visit to Washington D.C. and Rose Garden signing ceremony could incentivize these leaders to sign an agreement. Such an accord would not only give Trump an achievement to truly brag about, it would make a difference for a region that cannot afford more war and instability.
