President Xi Jinping appeared virtually at the UN Secretary-General’s climate leaders’ event on September 24th to announce China’s long-awaited next “nationally determined contribution” (or “NDC”) under the Paris Agreement. It sets an economy-wide target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, along with several other targets. As with many other announcements at the event, it involved headline numbers only and will still need to be formally submitted.
The announcement prompted a diverse set of public and private reactions, from the positive (e.g., it’s the first time China has committed to reduce, as opposed to simply limit, its emissions of greenhouse gases) to the relative (e.g., well, it’s better than the United States, which is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement) to the negative (e.g., deep disappointment at the weak, overly conservative target; missed opportunity to show leadership). A user-friendly analysis produced by the Asia Society is here.
At and around the UN event, the chatter regarding the announcement was generally negative. Although expectations regarding China’s NDC had been tempered in the weeks leading up to the event, the announced target was even lower than expected; there were gasps in the audience when the numbers “7 to 10” were first uttered. While there was relief that the target for the first time includes all greenhouse gases, not just CO2, there was also consternation about the baseline, given that the percentage reduction relates to an undefined base year (“peak levels”), which could be in the future.
Many countries, big and small, came through with ambitious NDC submissions or announcements both at and before the UN event, and these efforts should be acknowledged. In addition, those looking for hope can point to the “real economy,” including in the United States, which continues to back up the energy transition; to all the initiatives and other climate-related actions beyond Parties’ NDCs; to China’s history of “over-performing” its NDCs; and to the fact that the NDCs submitted this year for 2035 are not set in stone but can — and should — be upgraded to align with a 1.5°C limit on temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. At the same time, China’s announcement — coupled with the U.S. withdrawal — has alarmed many in terms of stalling momentum at exactly the wrong time.
NDCs: Where we Started and Where We’re Headed
By way of background, the Paris Agreement requires Parties to update their NDC emissions targets/actions every five years. This year’s updates were technically due on February 10th — nine months before the start of the annual “COP” in Brazil in November. Many Parties, including China, missed the deadline, and the UN event was scheduled as a de facto new deadline for late NDC announcements.
The Paris Agreement itself is highly flexible when it comes to the content of Parties’ respective NDCs. They are, by definition, “nationally determined,” and there would not likely be a Paris Agreement had it been overly prescriptive when it came to the content of NDCs. (The Agreement does include various procedural requirements, such as when they need to be submitted and which clarifying information needs to accompany their submission).
Yet the Paris regime has not been static. The Parties have incrementally, through various decisions, created certain non-binding yet significant expectations regarding the shape of NDCs. Most recently, the 2023 decision at the Dubai COP encouraged Parties to come forward in their next NDCs with “ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C….” (para 39).
While not changing the “nationally determined” nature of NDCs and mindful of Parties’ different national circumstances, this creation of a link between NDCs and a 1.5°C temperature goal was quite groundbreaking. It generated some hope that the country responsible for about 30% of global emissions would come forward with a “1.5-aligned” NDC — particularly given that, in 2024, the G20 members, including China, stated that they would “respond positively” to the Dubai call. A 1.5-aligned NDC for China would have entailed a reduction target closer to 30% or even more, i.e., a far greater reduction than the cautious one announced.
It is unclear what the implications of the announcement will be for the ambition of other Parties, the upcoming COP, and the health of the Paris Agreement. At a minimum, it is likely to intensify the call for COP 30 to somehow respond to the “NDC gap,” i.e., what is bound to be a sizable delta at this stage between the aggregate NDCs and the level of reductions needed to keep a 1.5°C limit on the table.
