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U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (L) and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. Dan Caine (R) turn to watch a video of a bombing test

What Counts as a Win?: Battle Damage Assessments and Public Messaging

The White House's future BDA briefings on the Iran strikes will likely project certainty where analysis still urges caution.
An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Why War? Why Now? Assessing Iranian Intentions and Capabilities

Why did Israel, and then the United States, decide to attack Iran now, even as U.S.-Iranian negotiations sputtered along?
Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe (R) accompanied by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (L)

When Intelligence Stops Bounding Uncertainty: The Dangerous Tilt Toward Politicization under Trump

In a system where assessments are filtered to support policy, the next intelligence failure will not be a surprise, but a choice.
Katherine Keneally and Julia Ebner answer questions at the Calleva-Airey Neave Global Security Seminar Series hosted by Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government on May 1, 2025.

Q&A with Katherine Keneally: The Future of Terrorism Detection and Analysis

How should we understand evolving terrorism, and what’s needed for better threat assessment? Julia Ebner discussed this with expert Katherine Keneally.
A model of an underwater internet cable

A New Strategy to Counter Chinese Sabotage of Taiwan’s Undersea Cables

U.S. policymakers must adopt a comprehensive strategy to counter China's "shadow fleet" and enhance Taiwan's undersea cable security.
The Binnenhof (Dutch Parliament) on Hofvijver lake in the Hague city, South Holland, Netherlands

The Netherlands Apologizes for Involvement in Hawija Airstrike and Lays Out Further Reforms

The Dutch Cabinet's release of a list of commitments on mitigating civilian harm is a major step forward for transparency.
Abstract image of human eye with retinal circuit on a black background.

The Dangerous Foreign Intelligence Exception Loophole in the Hasbajrami Decision

The Hasbajrami decision’s expansive view of the FISA foreign intelligence exception threatens to swallow the rule that the Fourth Amendment's warrant requirement applies to U.S.…
National flags of USA and Russia waving in the wind on a clear day.

Intelligence Sharing Is a True Measure of U.S. Strategic Realignment with Russia

Shifts in intelligence sharing practice with Russia would reliably signal that the United States is instituting a deep strategic realignment.
President Trump and President Zelensky, sitting in the oval office, face away from look away from eachother.

What Just Happened: Security and Foreign Policy Implications of Pausing Intelligence Sharing with Ukraine

The Trump administration's decision to pause intelligence sharing with Kyiv may have significant national security ramifications - both for Ukraine and the United States.
DHS Flag painted on a wall

How DHS Laid the Groundwork for More Intelligence Abuse

The DHS I&A's new guidance validates an expansive view of legal authorities that permit abusive counterterrorism and surveillance powers.
photograph of Travis LeBlanc speaking into a microphone.

“Fired” Member of U.S. Privacy Oversight Board Discusses What He Considers at Stake

"The risks to U.S. persons, as well as non-U.S. persons, from the misuse, abuse, and exfiltration of data are quite substantial."
Top shot of the Eastern District of New York courthouse, Manhattan, NY

Court Says Warrant Needed for U.S. Person Queries of FISA Section 702 Data

Judge Hall’s Hasbajrami decision marks the first time a court has ruled that U.S. person queries of FISA Section 702 data must be performed pursuant to a warrant or an exception…
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