The quantum era is around the corner. Major tech companies are announcing impressive breakthroughs in quantum advantage, quantum error correction, and quantum networking. Competing quantum chips are also reaching new heights, from IBM’s Condor breaking the 1,000-qubit barrier in December 2023 signaling the ability to dramatically expand computational power, to Google’s Willow, presented in December 2024, and Microsoft’s Majorana 1 announcement in February 2025 – a breakthrough that remains contested.
The quantum race is international, with competition between major players in the West and the East. Public investments in quantum technologies have surged globally, reaching $42 billion in 2023. China leads with more than $15 billion in investments, followed by Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, and South Korea. Similar to the global race for AI leadership, quantum technology has geopolitical dimensions. Commentators are drawing comparisons between the quantum race and the earlier, nuclear and space races.
Should policymakers anticipate that the quantum race will pose major security and safety risks, as with nuclear power? If this proves to be the case, then the international community can expect security implications of analogous magnitude. However, by coordinating and acting early, governments have an opportunity to prevent harmful competition, anticipate societal impacts, and build inclusive governance frameworks that support responsible and equitable development and adoption of quantum technologies.
What Security Risks and Benefits Will the Quantum Era Unlock?
Security Risks
Cybersecurity protocols have been reliant on classical computers’ inability to solve complex mathematical problems that underlie cryptography. However, projections indicate that quantum computers will likely threaten to break state-of-the-art public-key cryptography as early as 2030. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has warned that this would “seriously compromise the confidentiality and integrity of digital communications on the Internet and elsewhere.” Security experts therefore are working toward transitioning to post-quantum cryptographic solutions for digital networks and infrastructures. For example, NIST is leading a post-quantum cryptography standardization process, selecting cryptographic systems that can secure sensitive information and communications against both quantum and classical computing.
Quantum computers’ impacts on the confidentiality and integrity of information and communications presents both national and global security issues. At the national level, it is crucial for both governments and businesses to prepare transitioning digital systems and communications for post-quantum encryption and prioritize the regulatory requirements for the security of mission-critical operations and critical infrastructure. At a global level, cooperation around this transition is also important given the interdependency of digital infrastructures.
Furthermore, quantum technologies — namely those concerning quantum sensing and metrology, computing, and communications — are dual-use technologies with both civilian and military purposes. In this respect, the quantum race introduces novel global security risks, particularly through military applications of quantum technologies. In addition, quantum technologies’ relevance to national security highlights existing geopolitical tensions and amplifies the need for stronger defense alliances. For instance, quantum may lead to a new arms race between powers like the United States and China, which are developing technologies that will transform military tech, such as radars, compasses, and other detection and navigation tools. As another example, last year NATO announced its first quantum strategy outlining investments in research and development, support for a transatlantic forum for quantum technologies in defence and security, and the promotion of a “Transatlantic Quantum Community” to engage with government, industry and academia. NATO views quantum technologies as a key element of strategic competition, with significant potential for both the Alliance and its adversaries.
Security Benefits
On the other hand, quantum communication can enhance security by leveraging the principles of quantum physics in combination with optical technologies, such as optical cables. For example, quantum physics allows particles transmitting data along optical cables to take on a state of superposition. This enables the secure transmission of highly sensitive information by means of quantum key distribution, a technique for securely sharing encryption keys. In other words, while quantum computers pose a threat to current cryptographic systems, quantum cryptography offers the promise of significantly more secure communication. Furthermore, attempts to interfere with qubits leave detectable traces — as any attempt to intercept with qubits collapses their quantum state, revealing evidence of tampering — effectively making quantum communication resistant to hacking.
In addition, quantum sensing technologies will offer new opportunities to mitigate risks as they improve. Their motion-detecting capabilities can monitor changes in electromagnetic fields and hazards more generally — as with early warning sensors, which can identify chemical or biological agents. Key benefits include strengthening the safety of critical infrastructure that depends on sensors, such as air traffic control systems and water utilities. Moreover, quantum technologies enable more effective monitoring of remote or hard-to-access locations, including underground and underwater environments. This is, however, a double-edge sword, as quantum sensing capabilities will also likely raise privacy concerns through their potential use in surveillance.
Risk Management Lessons
To mitigate quantum’s national and global security risks, policymakers can learn from past experiences of governing novel technologies. The safety and security risks associated with previous scientific breakthroughs, and the challenges currently presented by AI, serve as important lessons. These lessons should urge governments to take quantum security risks seriously and to consider and mitigate them proactively. They also provide a cautionary tale of the security risks that escalate with geopolitical tensions and ease with cross-border collaboration.
It is crucial to identify these risks and implement robust risk management strategies at this formative stage, when the full capabilities of quantum science have yet to materialize and quantum technologies are not yet widely implemented as, for example, AI. Established risk management frameworks from disciplines such as cybersecurity, finance, AI, and even the nuclear sector — which has a long history of mitigating safety and security risks through international norms, oversight, and diplomacy — can provide valuable models for addressing these emerging challenges.
In the context of AI, for instance, regulatory and industry-led efforts — such as the European Union’s AI Act and the Frontier AI Safety Frameworks, respectively — provide comprehensive approaches to risk governance, although these initiatives remain in the early stages of implementation and impact. The AI domain has critically demonstrated that technologists often exhibit a strong bias toward technological innovation, treating risk mitigation as an afterthought. Another important insight is the paradoxical way people perceive the human role in AI systems, tending to underestimate human involvement when systems function smoothly yet overestimate it when they fail. Thus, risk-mitigating approaches for quantum technologies should involve transparency and explainability, human oversight — particularly for high-risk systems — and clear accountability frameworks.
Prioritizing the Public Good to Avoid Race to the Bottom Global Security Scenarios
Thinking beyond security risks and opportunities, scientists, policymakers, and public and private funders must continue to develop agendas and frameworks for responsible quantum research and innovation and in critical societal research.
Furthermore, the international community needs early and more effective communication and collaboration between quantum scientists, their funders, and policymakers at a global level — primarily to avoid “race to the bottom” global security scenarios that could trigger cold-war style overspending and escalation. Such collaboration will serve three key purposes. First, it will address rising concerns about the impact that quantum technologies might have on society, as well as anticipated path dependencies. Second, it can help pre-empt the emergence of a science-industrial complex and redesign innovation pathways for the greater good. Lastly, it will help prevent a global governance gap by strengthening international networks of cooperation.
Analysts agree that collaboration can help mitigate security risks while promoting research and development as well as broader adoption of quantum technologies. Policy analysts, while emphasizing the strategic benefits of early mobilization, highlight the emergence of a robust and collaborative industry network. The network involves both national and cross-national partners from major quantum players, including the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and others. In contrast, China has pursued a much more inward-looking strategy, marked by significantly fewer international partnerships. Nevertheless, it is essential to acknowledge that these countries belong to a privileged network for research and development exchange. This network only excludes substantial portions of the global community and the Global South, but also poses significant global supply chain challenges in the form of control points by concentrating critical technologies, expertise, and infrastructure within a limited group of nations.
Overall, to avoid a global quantum race to the bottom in security, governments must shift their mindsets from racing against to racing with others. This can reduce risks of fragmentation, isolationism, or a new type of global zoning reminiscent of early Internet governance. At a national level, comprehensive quantum strategies must be developed in tandem with thorough cybersecurity frameworks and sector-specific, risk-based regulations. These integrated approaches will better equip the international community to anticipate and mitigate the emerging security and broader risks of quantum technologies, ensuring that countries are not constrained by unforeseen technological, scientific, or geopolitical challenges.
