In a multipolar and economically fragmented world, quantum technology is emerging as a pivotal battleground, shifting from a niche area of research to a strategic instrument of national power. Policymakers worldwide are beginning to recognize its transformative potential and the far-reaching ramifications it may have on security, industry, and the global economic order.
For decades, globalization promised interconnectivity and shared prosperity. Today, that model is being re-evaluated as countries reassess long-standing economic dependencies. Supply chains that once ensured efficiency now expose critical vulnerabilities. Governments are forced to ask whether they can guarantee access to essential technologies if production, delivery, and maintenance depend on external and potentially unreliable stakeholders. Quantum technology, once regarded as a purely scientific endeavor, is increasingly being viewed through such a strategic lens. Instead of merely serving as a catalyst for innovation, it has quickly become a crucial factor in reshaping global power dynamics.
Quantum technology’s potential to transform computing, communications, and cybersecurity could redefine industries, military strategy, and the global economic hierarchy. However, despite the widespread anticipation of the “quantum advantage” — a term used to indicate commercial value in quantum computing — uncertainty remains. While there is significant progress in terms of both hard- and software developments, policymakers, researchers, and industry leaders around the world do not agree on what quantum technology can ultimately achieve, when it will be market-ready, and which sectors will benefit first.
Nonetheless, the possibility of game-changing breakthroughs is already driving speculation and major investments, with steady growth in major funding rounds and high-profile speculations about the potential of this technology. Unlike established technologies, however, the quantum sector is still in its infancy. It requires fundamental advances in materials science, precision engineering, and computational theory before entering commercial territory. This paradox — in which a technology remains largely experimental while a global race for dominance is already underway — presents both risks and opportunities.
A Quantum Race?
The stakes are high. Beyond its anticipated role in driving pharmaceutical, energy, chemistry, and logistical breakthroughs, quantum is likely to significantly impact national security, especially cybersecurity, intelligence, and military operations. The United States, China, and Europe have already recognized that quantum technology is not just about delivering high-resolution sensors, secure communications, or faster computation; it also represents a ticket to dominance over other countries. In recent years, the policy debate in the European Union (EU) has begun to see quantum policy in geopolitical terms, a shift from its historically cautious approach. As a result, governments of advanced economies have introduced economic security policies (for example, export controls) as a new paradigm for regulating and protecting emerging national quantum ecosystems.
Beyond these dominant players, only a handful of countries have achieved leading positions in quantum research and development. If this imbalance continues, the world risks drifting into a “quantum divide,” in which a select few accumulate disproportionate advantages while others struggle to compete. Institutions such as UNESCO and the OECD have started discussions on inclusion and global governance frameworks for quantum technologies, recognizing the need for equitable access and international oversight. Independent initiatives, including the Centre for Quantum & Society, the Open Quantum Institute, and the World Economic Forum, are also pushing for inclusive quantum policies.
Still, countries with well-coordinated quantum strategies and robust research ecosystems will likely remain best-positioned to dominate the field. Those leading in quantum development today are shaping the quantum economy of tomorrow, raising concerns about the long-term impacts of technological fragmentation in this field.
Building the Hardware
At the core of the quantum race lies the quantum hardware — the physical components enabling quantum technology. Unlike classical systems, which have benefited from decades of refinement, quantum hardware often relies on exotic materials (such as germanium 73 or silicon 28), ultra-precise control systems, and specialized manufacturing techniques that remain in early development. This creates significant supply chain challenges, marked by a small number of highly specialized suppliers, as well as concentrated control points.
These vulnerabilities may include reliance on rare earth metals essential for quantum components, the need for specialized cryogenic cooling systems required for maintaining quantum processors, or dependence on advanced semiconductor fabrication techniques that are often concentrated in a few key regions. While these dependencies primarily affect research institutions now, they will soon become a more general concern for industrial policy and national security strategies as quantum hardware moves closer to commercialization.
As a result, leading quantum nations are likely to shift gears in two areas. First, countries are gradually moving beyond traditional public-private partnerships. Quantum’s complexity demands broader coalitions that bring together academic institutions, startups, specialized materials suppliers, and niche manufacturers. And with geopolitical competition dominating many aspects of the quantum landscape, certain forms of international cooperation will be beneficial, including new forms of manufacturing coalitions and ad-hoc alignment in the fields of standardization, benchmarking, testbeds and foundational research. Even among rival governments, maintaining some degree of collaboration is required to facilitate interoperability and create shared technical frameworks. These partnerships are being established in various bi- and multilateral fora.
Second, governments are beginning to scrutinize their own supply chains to ensure they retain control over essential quantum technologies, such as the European Union and the United States with their respective Chips Act initiatives. To do so, it is key to understand the structure of the quantum supply chain before defining policies that mitigate vulnerabilities. This requires detailed mapping of every stage of production, from raw material sourcing to final assembly. Once this information is available, governments can implement targeted policies such as investing in domestic research and development, fostering public-private partnerships, and incentivizing scale-ups and local manufacturing capacity.
So-called “choke points” in the quantum supply chain will also attract growing attention. These choke points occur when a single supplier or country gains disproportionate control over a critical component of production. If, for instance, a single entity monopolizes a key superconducting material or state-of-the-art cryogenic system, any disruption could have far-reaching economic and security consequences. Some governments are consequently exploring policies designed to create “reverse dependencies.” This attempts to make other countries reliant on specific domestic quantum components. Ultimately, this can create leverage in future geo-economic negotiations.
Going forward, countries will likely make greater efforts at securing critical components for quantum development, such as refining advanced materials. Quantum hardware depends on materials engineered to highly exacting standards, making investment in materials science an essential part of any national quantum strategy. Research into new superconducting materials, advancements in quantum photonics, and alternative approaches to rare-earth dependencies are all emerging as priority areas. Countries that invest early in developing superior quantum materials are likely to gain a competitive advantage and reduce their reliance on external suppliers.
In addition, the role of software (both for hardware controls and end-user applications) should not be underestimated in the coming years. Early adopters buying quantum-related services will also need the right type of control software. In fact, cross-border collaboration might become easier in this regard once global industry players start using quantum technology for their daily operations world-wide.
A New World Order for Tech?
Looking at the dynamics at play, it is safe to say that cross-border supply chain considerations will remain a major part of the emerging quantum economy. This represents a fundamental departure from the 20th century economic models that shaped globalization. Unlike previous waves of digital innovation, when access to global markets and economies of scale determined economic power, the quantum era is placing an early premium on technological exclusion. Countries that secure dominance in quantum will not only control key breakthroughs in computing and security but will also wield influence over trading partners.
While the first commercially viable quantum devices are yet to be released, today’s policies and alliances will define the industry for decades to come. Increasing fragmentation of quantum supply chains, emerging strategic control points, and shifts toward regionalized production networks suggest that global competition over quantum will only intensify. Governments that successfully incentivize the creation of domestic quantum supply chains, invest in the production of specialized materials, and form strategic alliances with relevant trading partners will be best positioned to lead in this field.
Ultimately, quantum technology is a test case for a new economic paradigm, in which technological leadership — rather than market size alone — determines success. Whether this shift leads to greater fragmentation or new forms of global cooperation remains uncertain. What is clear is that countries are now deploying significant levels of political and economic capital to secure their quantum futures. The world is watching as governments, industries, and researchers navigate this uncharted terrain and reshape the structure of the international economic order.
